The debate about electric vehicles is gaining traction on the presidential campaign trail. Cars and other forms of transportation are the largest source of carbon emissions in the U.S., and the Biden-Harris administration has pushed to transition the auto industry to EVs to deal with climate change.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has raised fears about electric vehicles, running an ad in the swing state of Michigan, home of the U.S. auto industry, that begins like this:
“Attention, autoworkers. Kamala Harris wants to end all gas-powered cars. Crazy but true.”
Trump has made similar statements on the campaign trail.
“Detroit would be wiped out within two years. You watch,” he said at a rally in North Carolina in September. Trump warned that if he loses the election, “the autoworkers will be gone because all the electric cars are going to be made in China,” he said. “I will end the insane electric vehicle mandate.”
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Mandates and tariffs
There is no EV mandate.
“And Michigan, let us be clear: Contrary to what my opponent is suggesting, I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive,” said Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, finally addressing Trump’s accusation at a campaign rally in Flint, Michigan on Oct. 4.
Earlier this year, Biden’s EPA finalized a tough tailpipe emissions rule to ensure that more than half of new cars in the US would be hybrid or all-electric by 2032. So far, EVs are less than 10 percent of the auto market. The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution last month to overturn the rule, which is unlikely to become law.
Harris blames Trump for failing to help transition the auto industry during his presidency and prevent Michigan auto plant closures, as he had promised. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 8,700 fewer auto industry jobs in Michigan at the end of Trump’s term.
“Thousands of Michigan auto workers lost their jobs,” Harris told the crowd in Flint. “And when it came to building the cars of the future, Donald Trump sat on the sidelines and let China dominate.”
Trump did impose tariffs on electric vehicles from China, which are cheaper than American-made EVs, during his presidency to make the U.S. industry more competitive. Biden recently quadrupled the tariffs to 100%, citing China’s unfair trade practices.
Now, Trump is campaigning to impose 200% tariffs on EVs made by Chinese companies in Mexico, warning that those imports in particular would “take every single job,” referring to autoworkers.
Factcheck.org found that there is only one small Chinese car manufacturing plant in Mexico right now, which was announced in 2017 during Trump’s term.
A closer look at job numbers for EVs vs. gas-powered vehicles
Trump blames auto industry layoffs under the Biden administration on the push for electric vehicles. Trump’s Michigan ad warns: “Michigan auto workers are paying the price. Massive layoffs already started. You could be next.”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there have only been 500 auto industry jobs lost in Michigan during Biden’s term, while nationwide, there has been an overall gain of 113,300 jobs as of September.
But are there fewer jobs involved in making electric vehicles?
According to a study published in Nature Communications in September, “it has been widely suggested that the transition to battery electric vehicles will require 30% fewer assembly workers than those needed for internal combustion engine vehicles.” But researchers found the opposite: EVs are more labor-intensive to assemble than gas-powered vehicles, not less.
A 2022 study by a team at Carnegie Mellon University’s Department of Engineering and Public Policy also looked at this question. They collected data from automakers, parts suppliers and battery manufacturers, and analyzed all the process steps, said Turner Cotterman, who was a PhD student at the time and is now an energy and automotive strategist at McKinsey and Company.
“We found that it took many more worker labor hours to produce an electric vehicle than it did an internal combustion engine vehicle,” Cotterman said.
EV battery jobs
While the jobs to make gas-powered cars are largely in vehicle assembly, the CMU team found that many EV jobs are in battery-making.
The Department of Energy is making billions of dollars in investments in domestic battery production, with money from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). Just last month, the DOE announced $355 million for EV battery projects in Michigan as part of $3 billion for 25 battery projects nationwide.
Harris has touted a $500 million grant to General Motors, announced in July to convert a Cadillac plant in Lansing to electric vehicles, ensuring 700 jobs.
Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance, called the grant “table scraps” compared to the auto industry job losses he claims will happen if Harris wins in November.
The United Auto Workers union has endorsed Harris.
Trump is also criticizing the $7.5 billion in federal funds allocated to build EV charging stations because few have been built, though he is using figures factcheck.org calls “not accurate.”
According to the state Department of Transportation, Pennsylvania expects $171.5 million over five years to build charging stations. So far, 91 electric vehicle charging projects have been awarded $59 million. But only three are operational. Transportation officials said many more are expected to come online this spring.
What does this mean for the EV roll-out?
Joe Sacks, executive director of the EV Politics Project, a bipartisan effort to understand the growing divide between Democrats and Republicans over electric vehicle adoption, wants Harris to move the conversation away from climate change and EV mandates.
“And instead focusing on the fact that [electric vehicles] create really good jobs in these communities,” he said.
Sacks worries that a Trump win in November could doom the tailpipe emissions rule and the laws like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that are funding charging stations, EV and battery plants, and more than $7.5 billion in consumer tax credits for purchasing new EVs.
“We’re worried that bashing EVs is good politics and that it moves voters,” Sacks said. “And it creates a permission structure, an incentive structure, to do things like repeal the IRA incentives and to run on anti-EV policies.”
Sacks fears that would set back the transition to cleaner vehicles for years. Instead, he wants a narrative that electric vehicles are popular, that infrastructure is coming and that American auto industry jobs depend on it.
